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How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade

Developments in Asia have elicited a lot of controversies in terms of the power of the region in relation to the political influence and the economic as well as the social influences this region has on the global perspective. Bill Emmott gives an outlook into the issue arguing that the developments in the region do not amount to a global struggle for power but rather an East versus East struggle for power exhibited among the three economies of the region: Japan, Indian and China.

The global economic downturn of the present period gives another impression of the matter which may be attributed to the contribution of the author ion the manner in which he gives the situation in Asia. The relation between the projections of Emmott and what is happening now in the Asian region in light of the present economic downturn is visited. In 2008, China’s inflation rate was reported to hit 7. 5%e and this was projected to have a brunt on the regional economy by causing a further economic slowdown. However, this was a reduction from the country’s previous inflation report which had indicated the inflation at January to be 8.

7 percent. In the same year, last year, it was [projected that the efforts of the country’s central bank to fight the inflation would imply a drop in the country’s growth rate below ten percent in 2008. this would be the first time the country’s growth rate goes below ten percent since 2002. In line with this other observers, like Emmott, argue that China’s economic slowdown may have a serious impact on the Asia’s regional economic (Masaki 2005). This is in spite of China being the country having a fifth of the total world population, it is not likely to have any considerable impact on the global economy.

Recent developments have indicated that China is now promising economic power globally. This contrasts what many critics believe that the economic set up of the country cannot allow it to achieve such status. The role played by China in defining the economic future of the Asian continent is one fact that Emmott stresses. The consumer price indices in China in 2008 pointed towards higher consumer prices as indicated by overseas shipments. Within the first five months of 2008, the overseas shipments had exhibited a price gain of 22. 9 %.

In the whole of 2007, the total gain was 25. 7 %. In June 2008, the Asian Development Bank projected that the regional inflation rate would escalate due to the surging prices of food and oil. Due to the increased realization by many governments on the region that the inflation in the region may not be dealt with and solved at once, many central banks in Asia to raised their interest rates as a counter measure. For instance, in 2008 the central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and India among others raised their interest rates as a measure to tackle the inflation.

The Asian Development Bank advised that the regional economies to develop cash income support programs to the underprivileged to act as a measure to lessen the effect of the rise in inflation in the region resulting from skyrocketing oil and food prices. Nevertheless, the Bank cautioned that the programs should not be executed or developed as general subsidy. According to the expectations of the Asian Development Bank, the region’s economies, with the exclusion of Japan, would ease in terms of growth from the 8. 7 % registered in 2007 to 7. 6 % in 2008.

One major cause factor to the projection was the weaker US demand for the region’s exports. China has however shown a lot of expansion in terms of exports as demand comes from other regions more so Africa. India’s Place in the Power Struggle The power struggles also include India squarely as an important player. The relationship that exists between India and either China or Japan is crucial in determining the power status of the entire Asia. While China could be threatened by India’s capability in terms of economy and nuclear, Japan also recognizes this and therefore works no ensure a cordial relationship with India (Rosemary et al 2006).

In terms of the economic performance, the country’s central bank became under pressure to raise the borrowing costs due to inflation which had accelerated. The projections of the rate of inflation hitting over 9 percent in the 2008/09 fiscal year also played a role ion creating worries in the way India’s Central Bank viewed the whole issue. China’s economic significance in the region is what represents the power and influence it has on a wider perspective. In addition to the cheap labor available to the country’s ability to grow economically and increase its influence in the region and far.

China is capable of making use of a number of tactics to exhibit its influence in the region. It can use coercion in military terms where its economic strength would have a critical role to show its military strength. Japan’s Strategies after the World War II In the mid 20th century, Japan was just rising from the fate and consequences of the war. Its rise then became a marked threat to America as was viewed by many in the western sphere. In 1977 Japan made a strategic change in the way it handled international relations; it declared never to become military power again.

With this in the forefront, it made relations with other countries based on a doctrine of equal partnership and cordial understanding especially with ASEAN countries which included Singapore, Thailand and other three other members in the region (Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia). Increased tensions in the region however thwarted Japan’s bid to play a major role in the region in building cordial relations between the communist political systems and Indochina peninsula (Rosemary et al 2006).

A few years ago, in 2005, Japan and China got entangled in a tug-of-war over the development of the Mekong River basin. Although Japan can be seen as progressing very slowly in the midst of globalization and the swift transformation in the old world order, it must be recognized that the East Asia is transforming in response to these global changes too. Politically, Japan has to seriously consider domestic opinions while its companies have to contend with an absolutely competitive domestic market.

Japan entered into commitment about five years to offer assistance in terms of development to the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam). Prior to 2001, Japan had been the world’s biggest aid donor. It can be remembered that in the 1990s predictions for Japan showed that Japan would decline in economic power. One major lesson would have however helped if it was looked at the way the US came up strong despite having experienced the depression of the 1926. The evolution of the geo-politics of Asia has a definitive impact in the America’s global power both in terms of the economic say and military leadership.

Assessment of the recent developments indicates that China calls for the Asian countries to form a reserve pool for economic empowerment that can enable them to overcome the impacts of the global economic crisis that has hit the global economic village. This strengthening of the regional economies creates a hidden threat to the US and Europe though it is also likely to reduce the influence these two nations are likely to have in the region and increase the probable influence of regional powers such as Japan and China.

One major issue about the region is that the rise of China is not only an attracting subject but the fact that this region is dominated by more than one country or outside powers for the first time in history. The competition elicited among the three economies in the region therefore determines the world economy to a greater extent. With the neighboring countries experiencing volatility, these three countries (India, Japan and China) still continue to shape the future of the region economically and militarily and tremendously change the way the world views the region thus the nature of international relations is also affected.

The cooperation between the US and India has in the recent past been projected to counter the threat brought by China’s growing influence in the area and its military capability (Alex Spillius, 2008 telegraph). The Chinese military capability is a driving force to the America’s increased cooperation with India and Japan. In 1995, ASEAN decided to undertake the initiative for its own development for the development of the Mekong River Basin Changes in China’s ways of facing the power challenge from Japan China has used various tactics to outwit Japan in terms of influence in the region.

In order to send Japan off from substantial influence in the ASEAN region, China either cut tariffs or gave tariff exemptions for over 500 products originating from three ASEAN nations that are underdeveloped. In addition, it entered into a number of agreements with the other GMS countries aimed at enhancing cooperation in the transportation area, the area of animal epidemics prevention, the area of environmental, protection and power trade among other areas. Geographical location of China also seems to put it an advantageous position in relation to the influence it has on the Asian region.

Singaporean Economy and Political Influence Singapore is an amalgamation of different cultures resulting from the 19th century immigrations. The expulsion of Singapore from the alliance with Malaysia has had a considerable impact on the country’s economy, politics and political power (Rosemary et al 2006). In relation to Emmott’s suppositions, the situation in the East Asia is so volatile and the surrounding region made of countries like Vietnam, Tibet, and Cambodia complicates the predictability of the power play in the region.

The changes in Asia take place in a system of quick turn of events. With the notion of a quickly developing economy, the rate at which China struggles to become a regional influence is likely to beef up. The desire to come quickly to a global influence can be spelt from the steps China has taken in the recent past few years to extend its economic aid to far countries especially African countries. Works Cited: Rosemary, F. , Segal, G. , and, Barry B. , “China in the Global Economy: Does China matter? ” 2006 Masaki, H. , “China, Japan tug-of-war over Indochina” Oct 5, 2005

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