# Mathematical and scientific model

The Bayesian framework is a mathematical and scientific model that helps us to draw an inference or develop reasoning by way of probability. Thomas Bayes, Laplace and Bernoulli helped developed the Bayesian framework more than 200 years ago. Earlier, there was a lot of controversy regarding the details and the application of the Bayesian theory, but today there has been a rejuvenated interest and use of this scientific model. It has not only been utilized in epidemiology and medicine, but also in astrophysics, information technology, etc.

The main use of the Bayesian theory is to determine if a particular hypothesis is relatively valid. It can also be utilized to modify the details of the scientific theory, to choose something more valid. Specifically in epidemiology and public health, the Bayesian framework is being utilized to acquire the probability of the condition developing in a group who has certain factors that could risk developing the disease. Baye’s rules would manipulate the conditional probabilities.

The hypothesis is considered to be one probability and the data is considered to be another probability. Using the Baye’s rule, the validity of the hypothesis is determined given the data. For this, a comprehensive formula is being used. The Bayesian theory is often being used in animals to decode the spike trains. In sensory neurophysiology, Bayesian theory is often utilized to determine the neuronal function as a stimulus is shown to the animal. In this way, the function of the neuron in determining a particular perception is demonstrated.

The Bayesian theory plays a very important role in learning, as the potential causes, the various probabilities and the process of generation by which the data can be developed can be closely demonstrated by the use of the Bayesian theory. If there are several models, then the model that is more likely to give rise to a particular event is learnt to be used. References Olshausen, B. A. (2004). Bayesian probability theory, Retrieved May 1, 2009, from Web site: https://redwood. berkeley. edu/bruno/npb163/bayes. pdf Student B

The University of Glasgow has prepared certain comprehensive checklists for the application of evidence-based medicine (EBM). These checklist tools can be applied in various clinical situations including decision-analysis, diagnosis, economic evaluation, education and motivation, framing and choosing guidelines, determining risks, determining the prognosis, qualitative research, systematic review, treatment selection, etc. The web site stresses upon the need to read the entire Evidence-based article rather than the abstract, summary or the review.

Hence, the user can make a comprehensive decision, considering all the clinical issues in mind. The user would have to read the entire text of the evidence-based article and give responses in terms of ‘yes’, ‘no’ and ‘can’t say’. Many of the EBM critical appraisal checklists have complex calculation tools that help the user determine values such as true positives, false negatives, etc. The user can use this information to determine the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the validity of the article.

With relation to guidelines, the user would definitely have certain problems, and although practice guidelines are followed, the clinical outcome may be different from the intended outcome of the guidelines. In a way, the checklist tool helps the user to understand every detail of the clinical guideline and accordingly consider it for application in clinical practice. The user would also have to apply greater discretion based on experience, considering the clinical variations of each case. The user would have to give greater thought to the barriers that exist to the implementation.

At the end of each checklist is a jargon-buster, which provides more information to the user about various jargons, terms and ideas that may exist in a particular area. More than anything the checklist tools provide by the University of Glasgow provides a comprehensive method of enabling clinicians to utilize EBM. The Glasgow University’s method of applying research methodology includes researching, critically appraising and the use of technology.

References University of Bridgeport (2009). Glasgow EBM Checklists, Retrieved May 1, 2009, from Web site: http://www. bridgeport. edu/pages/5347. asp

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